TL;DR
Astral Codex Ten’s Open Thread 456 is a weekly community post inviting readers to discuss any topic and listing updates on meetups, election guides and AI grantmaking research. It also highlights projects including an AI-focused prediction market and a browser-based community-notes system; the post does not report a single breaking event.
Astral Codex Ten published Open Thread 456, its weekly open discussion post, combining an invitation for readers to talk about any subject with updates on local meetups, an election guide and projects related to AI grantmaking, prediction markets and community notes. The post is a collection of community notices rather than a report of one major breaking development.
The thread invites readers to post questions or discuss topics of their choice. It points to the blog’s unofficial subreddit, Discord and bulletin board, as well as in-person meetups. The post says most content is free, while some is available to subscribers.
Among the local updates, the author lists meetup changes in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia. The Boston group has completed a Greater Boston general-election voting guide. The author says they may publish more guides and are still exploring whether one can be prepared for the Bay Area.
The post also asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to complete a survey assigning utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. A second version asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the first survey, which the post says could help distinguish differences in worldview from random variation in assigned weights.
Community Work and AI Projects
The thread matters mainly as a coordination point for readers and local groups. Its meetup notices and election-guide links direct people to activities that may require timely attention, while its survey seeks input from people with experience in AI safety and grantmaking. The survey is presented as part of ongoing work to model, and potentially automate, parts of AI grantmaking; the post does not claim that such automation is already in use.
Two project announcements extend the thread beyond meetups. Stephen Grugett, described in the post as a grantee and Manifold Markets co-founder, announced MNX, a real-money prediction market focused on AI. Goodheart Labs is developing Common Notes, a system intended to bring community-style notes to material across the web. Both are described by the thread, but it gives limited detail about their operation, reach or results.
AI safety prediction market platform
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Updates Inside the Weekly Thread
Open Thread 456 follows a recurring format: it provides a general space for reader discussion and collects announcements for the Astral Codex Ten community. The source says the blog has several online community channels and organizes in-person events in different locations. This format means the post brings together notices with different deadlines and levels of development rather than presenting them as one coordinated initiative.
For the Bay Area, the author flags a San Francisco mail-in ballot registration deadline of end-of-day Monday and identifies Scott Wiener for Congress as the group’s main endorsement. The thread also gives an early notice for a Bay Area meetup scheduled for Saturday, Oct. 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. Because the source does not name a year, the dates should be read as stated in the original post, not assumed to refer to the current calendar.
On AI funding, the author links the new survey to earlier modeling efforts. The thread also says MNX offers futures representing AI company stocks, wagers tied directly to company revenue and other markets, including targets for an Epoch Capabilities Index. It compares MNX’s and Polymarket’s pricing of an Anthropic figure, but does not explain the underlying contract terms or valuation method.
“This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever.”
— Astral Codex Ten author, in Open Thread 456
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Deadlines, Markets and Project Details
The source does not give a publication year, so the relative dates—Monday’s registration deadline and the Oct. 24 meetup—cannot be matched confidently to a current date. Readers should check the linked original post or relevant local organizers for updated schedules and deadlines.
Several initiatives remain at an early or partly described stage. The post does not report survey results or explain how responses will affect grantmaking decisions. It also does not provide MNX’s full rules, market availability or regulatory details, nor independent evidence about the accuracy of the Anthropic-related prices it cites. For Common Notes, the source outlines the intended combination of AI and user input but does not report how widely the extension has been adopted or how notes are reviewed.
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Surveys and Local Events Ahead
The immediate next steps described in the thread are participation in the AI safety survey and checking the meetup updates for changes in the listed cities. The author says a Bay Area voting guide may follow, while noting that work on one is still being explored. The San Francisco registration date and the Oct. 24 meetup are presented as time-sensitive notices, but their current status is not established by the supplied material.
Readers interested in MNX or Common Notes can follow the project links in the original post for current details. The thread itself does not announce a launch timetable for either project, report survey findings or set a date for any further update.
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Key Questions
What is Open Thread 456?
It is Astral Codex Ten’s weekly open discussion post, where readers are invited to discuss any subject and find community announcements.
What is the AI grantmaking survey asking people to do?
It asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. A second survey asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the first.
What is MNX?
The post describes MNX as a real-money prediction market focused on AI, with markets tied to AI company stocks, revenue and other measures. It does not provide full trading or regulatory details.
What is Common Notes?
Common Notes is a project by Goodheart Labs intended to extend community-style notes across the web. The post says it combines AI-written notes, user submissions and voting, with a browser extension to display them on different sites.
Are the meetup and election dates current?
The supplied post gives a Monday registration deadline and a Saturday, Oct. 24 meetup date, but does not specify a year. Check the original post and local organizers for current information.
Source: rss
